# Trenchonomics — live macro, markets & crypto data

Updated: 2026-10-20T21:51:28.613Z

> This is the complete dataset. Structured JSON (same data + sparkline history): https://www.trenchonomics.com/api/dashboard
> Directions: ▲ rising, ▼ falling. Interpret risk with the indicator's nature (e.g. rising VIX/spreads = risk-off).

## Markets

- **S&P 500**: $769.01 ▲ +0.33% (SPY proxy) — as of 10-20
- **Nasdaq 100**: $717.52 ▼ −0.12% (QQQ proxy) — as of 10-20
- **Russell 2000**: $275.79 ▲ +1.66% (IWM proxy) — as of 10-20
- **VIX**: 18.4 ▼ −1.5 (volatility) — as of 10-19

## Crypto

- **Bitcoin**: $82,827 ▲ +1.08% (7d)
- **Ethereum**: $2,449 ▲ +2.07% (7d)
- **Crypto Market Cap**: $2.79T ▼ −1.46% (total)
- **BTC Dominance**: 59.5%
- **Crypto Fear & Greed**: 55 ▼ −4 (Greed)

## Rates & Fed

- **FOMC Odds**: 86% hold (Oct 28) — as of Polymarket
- **Fed Funds**: 3.88% → +0 bp (EFFR) — as of 10-19
- **2Y Treasury**: 4.77% ▲ +3 bp — as of 10-19
- **10Y Treasury**: 5.15% ▲ +6 bp — as of 10-19
- **2s10s Spread**: 0.33% ▼ −5 bp (10Y − 2Y) — as of 10-20
- **High-Yield Spread**: 3.29% ▼ −2 bp (OAS) — as of 10-19
- **Fed Balance Sheet**: $6.76T ▲ +0.12% (weekly) — as of 10-14

## Economy

- **CPI Inflation**: 4.0% ▲ +0.31 pp (YoY) — as of Sep
- **Core PCE**: 3.0% ▲ +0.02 pp (YoY) — as of Aug
- **Unemployment**: 4.2% ▲ +0.1 — as of Sep
- **Nonfarm Payrolls**: +29K ▼ −104K vs prior (MoM) — as of Sep
- **Jobless Claims**: 199K ▲ +1 (initial, weekly) — as of 10-10
- **GDP Growth**: 2.2% ▼ −0.3 (QoQ annualized) — as of Apr
- **Consumer Sentiment**: 51.7 ▼ −3.5 (U. Michigan) — as of Aug
- **Retail Sales**: +0.7% ▼ −0.6 pp (MoM) — as of Sep

## Commodities & FX

- **Crude Oil (WTI)**: $101.91 ▲ +1.04% — as of 10-14
- **Natural Gas**: $3.22 ▲ +2.55% (Henry Hub) — as of 10-14
- **Gold**: $4,125 ▲ +0.10% (XAU/USD) — as of 10-21
- **Copper**: $39.77 ▲ +0.51% (CPER proxy) — as of 10-20
- **US Dollar Index**: 121.40 ▼ −0.14% (broad, Fed) — as of 10-16

## Upcoming events (US Eastern)

- 2026-10-28 14:00 ET — FOMC Rate Decision [fed]
- 2026-10-29 (approx.) — ECB Rate Decision [global]
- 2026-10-29 08:30 ET (approx.) — GDP Q3 (advance) [data]
- 2026-10-30 08:30 ET (approx.) — Core PCE Release [data]
- 2026-11-02 10:00 ET — ISM Manufacturing PMI [data]
- 2026-11-04 10:00 ET — ISM Services PMI [data]
- 2026-11-06 08:30 ET — Nonfarm Payrolls [data]
- 2026-11-12 08:30 ET (approx.) — CPI Release [data]
- 2026-11-16 08:30 ET (approx.) — Retail Sales [data]
- 2026-11-18 14:00 ET — FOMC Minutes [fed]
- 2026-11-20 — Options Expiry [opex]
- 2026-11-25 08:30 ET (approx.) — Core PCE Release [data]
- 2026-11-26 08:30 ET (approx.) — GDP Q3 (2nd est) [data]
- 2026-12-01 10:00 ET — ISM Manufacturing PMI [data]
- 2026-12-03 10:00 ET — ISM Services PMI [data]
- 2026-12-04 08:30 ET — Nonfarm Payrolls [data]
- 2026-12-09 14:00 ET — FOMC Rate Decision [fed]
- 2026-12-10 08:30 ET (approx.) — CPI Release [data]
- 2026-12-16 08:30 ET (approx.) — Retail Sales [data]
- 2026-12-17 (approx.) — ECB Rate Decision [global]
- 2026-12-18 — Quad Witching (opex) [opex]
- 2026-12-23 08:30 ET (approx.) — Core PCE Release [data]
- 2026-12-30 14:00 ET — FOMC Minutes [fed]
- 2026-12-31 08:30 ET (approx.) — GDP Q3 (3rd est) [data]
- 2027-01-01 08:30 ET — Nonfarm Payrolls [data]
- 2027-01-01 10:00 ET — ISM Manufacturing PMI [data]
- 2027-01-05 10:00 ET — ISM Services PMI [data]
- 2027-01-15 — Options Expiry [opex]

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Sources: FRED, Twelve Data, CoinGecko, Polymarket, alternative.me. Indices via ETF proxies; FRED market series lag ~1 day. Not investment advice.